Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Economic and Market Commentary - What's happening now - CPI lower than expected, no inflation in sight - Market update - Time to raise the warning fla

The economy is not exactly in its best shape recently. The recession started in the United States and we are slowly feeling its toll in United Kingdom. In general, sales plummeted down. Basic necessities such as food, clothing and houses proved to be more expensive that what an average person can afford. This makes it a bad time to buy something big. Buying expensive cars, luxury items and houses may seem ludicrous at this point right?

Wrong. Although prices have hiked up recently, there is a means to get a decent house at a cheaper price. By cheaper, this means 30 to 40% off the usual price that you would have to pay for a new house. How? You can do this by buying repossessed property at auctions.

A repossessed house is a property taken back by the bank or a real estate company because of bad debts. In simpler terms, these are the houses of mortgagees that were not able to pay for amortizations of their housing loans. As a prospective buyer, we might be turned off to acquire the property because of this fact. For some, their conscience may be bugged because it may seem that we are taking advantage of a different person's weakness. Then again, the concept of "taking advantage" may be a bit too harsh. We must bear in mind that before a property is repossessed, several notices and chances are given to the mortgagee. If no action is done on their part, that is the only time when eviction happens.

When a bank repossesses a house, this will be put up in an auction. Public auctions are facilitated by an auctioneer that introduces the property, and sets the initial bidding price. The auction is ofter attended by a group of people who expressed their interest in acquiring the property up for bid. Prospective buyers will bid their price and typically, the person with the highest bid gets to go home as the winner.

However bidding for a house is so much different from bidding for a book, bag or any accessory on line. Since a house is a property with greater value, more care should be put into it. Say for example, one cannot simply rely on catalogs and pictures during the process of acquisition. It is advisable for you to visit the actual property itself for you to check on the condition of the house you want to buy. If you are buying the property to live in it, make sure that it is suitable to be inhabited. Most repossessed houses that have not been maintained for quite some time may need some repair or renovation. When you find that improvements or maintenance works are necessary, calculate the cost. You would not want to buy a "cheaper" house only to find out that you need to spend a lot of money just so you can live in it.

Lastly, if you are not familiar with the whole process, ask a professional real estate agent to walk you through it. buying repossessed property at auctions does not have to be hard and complicated. All you have to do is find someone who can make things easier for you. These private offices usually charge a month's worth of your amortization or rent.

Economic and Market Update - June 17, 2009

Economic and Market Commentary - What's happening now - CPI lower than expected, no inflation in sight - Market update - Time to raise the warning flag - Economic Update - The new mentality of frugality - Investment Strategy - Time to be proactive, the forecast calls for pain *Retirement Seminar - Update Our (Free) 3 award-winning seminars that we are hosting next week: - Entitled: But what if I live? - The American Retirement Crises are filling up fast. This seminar will educate you on how to create a secure retirement for you and your family. There is no charge to attend and no products will be sold. Tuesday has only 4 seats open, Wednesday is full and Thursday has 8 seats open. Call right away if you are interested in attending. 916-925-8900 What's happening now - CPI lower than expected, no inflation in sight The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI for May increased a modest +0.1% from April. (The March monthly CPI was 0.0%) Today's (6/17) CPI is less than the consensus estimate of +0.3%. Excluding food and energy, CPI was also up +0.1% for May, which is less than the +0.3% for April. The year over year CPI is down -1.3% and excluding food and energy Y-O-Y CPI was up +1.8%. Today's (6/17) CPI data suggests the inflation genie remains in the bottle with no inflation in sight. This is in line with what I have been saying for a long time. Inflation is not the problem. Deflation is. Quite simply, assets are being destroyed faster than the government can inflate. What they really need is about $25 trillion to make a difference, and they don't. (thankfully or they'd spend it) Market update - Time to raise the warning flag For the first time since I went bullish on March 11, I am getting a little nervous. The market seems to be over the "It's not the end of the world" rally, and looking for real evidence of a recovery. A lack of selling appears to be the primary factor in keeping this rally afloat. The lack of Demand behind the gains over the past month is very evident in the behavior of the Buying Power Index. Although the DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Comp. Index were all at new rally highs late last week, the Buying Power Index was far from its high reading, at 172, recorded on May 8. In fact, with yesterday's drop to 124, Buying Power is now at its lowest level since March 17 (at 121), just six days after the March 9 market low. That reading might not be a surprise if the market indexes had just suffered a significant decline. But, two days after the major price indexes were at new rally highs? Certainly, the market indexes can advance while Buying Power is dropping and Selling Pressure rising. (See, for instance, the rally from October 2005 to May 2006.) Historically, though, such rallies usually occur well after a bull market has become established, not in the first 2-3 months of advance after a market bottom. Consequently, the contraction in Demand does not appear to be offering an environment favorable for a new, major move to the upside by the price indexes. Thus far, the recent decline appears to be driven mainly by a lack of Demand rather than by heavy selling. For example, during Monday's big sell-off Buying Power fell 9 points while Selling Pressure rose 7 points. This pattern remained intact during yesterday's downside follow through, as the drop in Buying Power was twice the gain Selling Pressure. Specifically, Buying Power was down 4 points while Selling Pressure rose 2 points. If a combined 9 point increase in Selling Pressure can produce a 3.3% decline in the DJIA and 3.6% decline in the S&P 500 over the past two sessions, the market could experience a rather swift and protracted correction if Supply starts to grow. A further decline on continued increasing volume and a more pronounced expansion in Supply would tell me that the rally is over. The bottom line is the lack of a bounce following Monday's 90% Downside Day on the NYSE calls into question whether the buy the dips mentality that has dominated throughout this 3-month long bear market rally remains alive and well. Economic Update - The new mentality of frugality Are things really getting better, or is it just CNBC trying to convince us. I agree that sometimes just believing is enough. The market and the media are comforted by the fact that the long duration of this economic crises and the enormous government stimulus will bring an end to this long and painful recession. In the short term, I don't disagree. It would be hard to believe that all the money being thrown around will not help and as important, psychology has shifted to being sick and tired of being sick and tired. Unfortunately however, the many long term obstacles still exist. Demographics are still pointing to continued slow consumer spending, the fuel for the economy's engine: the banks have made a mess that will take years to rectify, not to mention a mockery of the system: The system is still grossly over-leveraged: and commercial real estate is just starting to fall (off a cliff), like we needed something else. This is leading to a major shift in consciousness: a new "mentality of frugality". Not only can people not spend anymore, but they don't want to. Remember the 80's where your status was to own things you can't afford? Now it's the opposite: To be able to afford it but not buy it. To make matters worse, the ratings agency, "Fitch", in a downgrade of yet another 543 mortgage-backed securities of 2005-07 vintage, gives us the following side notes: "The home price declines to date have resulted in negative equity for approximately 50% of the remaining performing borrowers in the 2005-2007 vintages. In addition to continued home price deterioration, unemployment has risen significantly since the third quarter of last year, particularly in California where the unemployment rate has jumped from 7.8% to 11%... The projected losses also reflect an assumption that from the first quarter of 2009, home prices will fall an additional 12.5% nationally and 36% in California, with home prices not exhibiting stability until the second half of 2010. To date, national home prices have declined by 27%. Fitch Rating's revised peak-to-trough expectation is for prices to decline by 36% from the peak price achieved in mid-2006. The additional 9% decline represents a 12.5% decline from today's levels." Don't let the deleveraging process fool you. It's a serious problem that takes time to unfold. Currently, we have about two trillion dollars of actual cash in our economy and about $50 trillion in credit. If we all decided to settle and pay off everything, we couldn't do it because there is not enough cash. There would be massive asset deflation. We, as a nation, are levered 25 to 1. Now, that $50 trillion is in a real sense the money supply because that is what we are all pretending is real money. I lend you money and you pretend you are going to pay me back. Then you pretend he is not going to call your debt for cash, and we are all going to keep the system going. Because if we all try to pay each other back at once, we are all collectively -- and this is a technical economic term -- screwed.

So we keep the system going. Now, where are we today? We are at the Great Deleveraging. We are seeing massive losses and destruction of assets, on a scale that is unprecedented. There was massive destruction of assets during the Great Depression, which caused a lot of problems, and we are seeing the same thing today. We are watching trillions simply being evaporated. We are watching people pay down their credit lines, which is one way of saying the supply of money and credit is shrinking. Not just in the US, but all over the world. So we -- individuals and businesses -- are trying to find that $2 trillion in real cash and get some of it to pay down our debts. We are reducing that massive leveraged money supply down to some smaller number. The "Home" piggy banks are dry, the credit cards maxed and savings and retirement accounts crippled. Quarter 1 06 we had $223 billion in mortgage equity withdrawals. Quarter 2-2008 it was $9.5 billion. Is it any wonder we were in recession by 2008? By the third and fourth quarters there was no money to keep the treadmill going. That $50 trillion in credit was shrinking fast. We were imploding it. Further -- just as a little throwaway slide -- if you look at 2010 and 2011, we are getting ready for another huge wave of mortgage resets. Now, we've gone through the last wave and we saw what happened; it created a lot of foreclosures. We are not out of the woods yet. It is going to be 2012 before we sell enough houses to really get back to reasonable levels, because we had 3.5 million excess homes at the top. We absorb about a million a year, it takes 3 years, that's kind of the math. There's a lot of talk about a lost decade like in Japan. Recessions normally end everywhere because the monetary authority cuts interest rates a lot, and that gets things moving. And what we know in Japan was that eventually they cut their interest rates to zero and that wasn't enough. And, so far, although we made the cuts faster than they did and cut them all the way to zero, it isn't enough. We've hit that lower bound the same as they did. In their case, the problems had a lot to do with demographics of an aging population. That made them a natural capital exporter, from older savers, and also made it harder for them to have enough demand. They also had one hell of a bubble in the 1980s and the wreckage left behind by that bubble, in their case a highly leveraged corporate sector, which was and is a drag on the economy. This sounds all too familiar. There is a possibility that we get some perk-up as the stimulus dollars start to flow and an almost mechanical bounce back in industrial production as inventories are built up. But, without demand from our consumers we will slide down again. Investment Strategy - Time to be proactive, the forecast calls for pain Our trademarked investment tactical strategy, TDT™ and of concentrating on "real returns" by focusing of high dividend paying stocks and high yielding corporate bonds has been tremendously successful, and should be maintained. It's been a great year. It definitely has gotten more difficult to find bargains, as many of the issues we like have moved up substantially, having approached or passed their sell targets. Although, there are still great opportunities. For instance, just yesterday you could buy a 26 month GMAC bond with a yield to maturity of 12.47% per year. Unbelievable. Why take the risk of simply being in the stock market? It's just too high. We are a firm believer in getting 60-70% of the upside with only 30-40% (or less) of the downside risk. We still believe the stimulus will have an effect and move the market higher in the short term and sure the market could surprise us to the upside, but we will still be positioned for great returns and be able to sleep at night. After all, what if it doesn't? And, if the market does test or make new lows, which will bring fear and horror like you've never seen, then we will still be in the right place...and sleep at night. It's time to be proactive with your finances. Be the expert or hire one! - Call today for a free portfolio review or simply a free 2nd opinion. The risk of being wrong is much too great. Cheers -Keith Keith Springer President Capital Financial Advisory Services 1383 Garden Hwy, Suite 200 Sacramento, CA 95833

90's Rock- The Great Unknown Songs

90's Rock- The Great Unknown Songs

Have you ever fallen victim to hearing a song, loving it, and never hearing it again? Or buying an album and wondering why your favorite song never became a single? Of course you have! There are countless great songs that have never been properly accredited, and while grateful that these were never "played out", we believe its time to give credit where credit is due. Like every decade, the 90's were filled with great, unknown tracks, and hopefully throughout this article we will introduce you to a few.

Alice in Chains- Rotten Apples
If you like great harmonies and bright guitars, check out the 1993 Alice in Chains release Jar of Flies. Although others have attempted to duplicate their sound, songs like "Rotten Apples" prove that there is nothing quite like the combined vocals of Jerry Cantrell and the late Layne Staley.
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Archers of Loaf- Might
We were definitely late to the party with this band, perhaps due to their lack of play on the radio. Check this song out and you'll understand why they have a great underground following.
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Black Lab- Wash it Away
Even though "Wash it Away" is Black Lab's most successful release to date, we deem it somewhat forgotten. You will most likely recognize the track, but probably haven't heard it in a decade.
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Blink 182- Carousel
Ask any Blink 182 fan what their favorite song is, and I guarantee many respond with "Carousel"! "Carousel", the opening track on Blink's 1994 debut album Cheshire Cat, instantly hooks the listener with a commanding minute long bass driven intro. Although "Carousel" is featured on Blink's Greatest Hits Album , it was never a radio hit, and therefore makes our list of unknown greats.
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Bouncing Souls- The Freaks, Nerds & Romantics
If you know punk music you're probably quite familiar with the Bouncing Souls, but they're certainly not a household name. This song could have possibly propelled them into the mainstream, had it been given a shot on the airwaves.
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Candlebox- Cover Me
When we think of 90's rock, one album that stands out is Candlebox's eponymous debut. As our favorite song on the album, we include "Cover Me" on this list. "Cover Me" hit the airwaves in 94, so it is unfair to categorize it as completely obscure, but (in our opinion) "You" and "Left Behind" stole its spotlight.
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Counting Crows- Children in Bloom
Counting Crows are another band with countless unknown greats. We were torn in choosing just one, but "Children in Bloom" is far too catchy to pass up.
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Everclear- Strawberry
The sixth track on Everclear's 1995 release Sparkle and Fade, is a must hear. Lasting only 2 minutes and 35 seconds, "Strawberry" is short, sweet, and definitely worth a few minutes of your time.
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For Squirrels- Stark Pretty
While their hit "Mighty K.C." gained them some fame, we don't see any reason why this song couldn't have followed suit.
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The Get Up Kids- Coming Clean
Plain and simple, an underrated track by an underrated band!
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Gren- She Shines
Gren's "She Shines" is yet another forgotten track. "She Shines" was mildly successful and received some radio play, but for the most part was never "a hit". The track exudes grunge, and was a perfect fit for the 90's.
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Incubus- Miss You
Even though we love the more aggressive side of Incubus, "Miss You" displays the group's versatility by introducing a more melodic sound.
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Jimmy Eat World- For Me This Is Heaven
Jimmy Eat World's 1997 release Clarity contains numerous great unknowns; in fact, the album in its entirety is outright enjoyable. "For Me This Is Heaven" is our favorite, therefore earning a spot on our list.
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Less Than Jake- My Very Own Flag
Although these Florida natives bear several of the catchiest songs to never hit the radio, "My Very Own Flag" definitely sticks out. Just listen to the last 50 seconds and tell us you disagree.
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Live- Mother Earth is a Vicious Crowd
Live's quality music writing didn't begin with Throwing Copper. The Pennsylvania rock band's debut album Mental Jewelry had some gems, one being "Mother Earth is a Vicious Crowd".
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Local H- Fritz's Corner
Local H broke onto the scene as a 2 piece band with a powerful sound. They've since received some radio play (mostly from their hit "Bound For The Floor"), but songs like "Fritz's Corner" helped distinguish them from a scene dominated by 3-5 piece bands.
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Metallica- Bleeding Me
When Metallica released the album Load in 1996, many fans were surprised by the bands new alternative sound. The album had several hits, with our favorite not being one of them. "Bleeding Me" extends for over eight minutes, and the song in its entirety is simply powerful.
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New Found Glory- Broken Sound
New Found Glory are known for creating great hooks. Check out "Broken Sound"- although repetitious, the two minute track will leave you yearning for more.
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Nirvana- Radio Friendly Unit Shifter
Most people think of Nevermind as their pinnacle album, but for our money we'll take In Utero. Filled with raw goodness, this song aids in putting that album on top, in our minds anyway.
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Our Lady Peace- Naveed
This song was popular in Canada, but it was never given a fair shot here in the States. This is an excellent song by an excellent band, and when we think back on the music of the 90s, this song definitely stands out.
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The Pietasters- Without You
The Pietasters have been blessing us with soulful ska for almost 20 years now. Check out their early work (like this track) because we think you'll quickly grow to know and love this band.
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Radiohead- Street Spirit
If you don't own Radiohead's The Bends, then you're missing out. And if you've never heard "Street Spirit", you're really missing out.
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Ridel High- Disqualified
If you like Weezer's Blue Album, check out this band and this song. Ridel High writes powerpop songs that are impossible not to enjoy. In fact, it's absolutely mind boggling that this song wasn't a smash hit (among some of their others).
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Seven Mary Three- Lucky
The vocals of Jason Ross carry this powerful tune. If you are an acoustic rock fan "Lucky" may be up your alley.
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Seaweed- Start With
This is a band that surprisingly flew under the radar. This song, laced with one hook after the other, may help you figure out what we mean.
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Sebadoh- Prince-S
This low-fi group never made a big splash with the mainstream, but fans of garage rock consider them one of the pioneers of the genre. This song can be found on their 8th release, and believe us when we say it's a good one.
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Silent Majority- Windows Down
This is probably the most obscure song and by the most obscure band on our list. This is one of the tamer songs from their hardcore collection, but we implore you to put it up against any great song of the 90s... it just may prevail as the winner.
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Sponge- Rotting Pinata
Their two singles "Plowed" and "Molly" were well received, but only those who purchased the album were fortunate enough to hear the energetic track titled "Rotting Pinata". The raspy vocals of frontman Vinnie Dombroski provide us with four minutes of ear candy.
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Sublime- Right Back
From start to finish, 40 ozs to Freedom is a treat. Within it you'll uncover several classic 90's hits, and other unknown gems like "Right Back".
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Sugar- Gee Angel
Bob Mould is generally known for the band Husker Du, but his follow up project pumped out some great hits in the 90s. Check out this track- we think you'll enjoy it.
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Sunny Day Real Estate- In Circles
Diary is such a momentous album that picking just one great song is like picking a number out of a hat. Although we were a bit torn, "In Circles" is amongst the more radio friendly tracks, and extremely enjoyable to boot.
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Third Eye Blind- Motorcycle Drive By
Next time you are driving on a beautiful summer day, roll your windows down and pop on "Motorcycle Drive By". The 13th track on Third Eye Blind's self-titled debut is overflowing with catchy melodies and build ups that will bring a smile to your face.
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Toadies- Tyler
They may have taken a page out of the Pixies' book when they wrote the opening riff to this track, but there is no questioning its overall greatness. This tune helped solidify the Toadies as one of the great alternative bands of the 90s.
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The Tragically Hip- Ahead by a Century
The Hip are yet another talented Canadian band to never popularize in the States. "Ahead by a Century" may have been a Much Music favorite, but ultimately didn't receive the recognition it deserved.
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Weezer- Only in Dreams
Ok, so it may be unfair to categorize any song off Weezer's Blue Album as "unknown", but "Only in Dreams" surely was not a radio hit, and therefore makes our list. Some may describe the track as linear, and although not extremely colorful, the bass line is truly memorable. "Only in Dreams" proves that sometimes less is truly more.
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